Below is an article by financial adviser Mike Larson. He believes the so-called housing recovery is a mirage. Others believe the recovery is real. Who do you believe?
The fact is that nobody knows. That’s why I invest by selling to those who think they know where the stock market is heading, and when. So if you want to know how to invest to earn an average of 10%/month, please click here!
The Latest on Housing
by Mike Larson
Friday, March 30, 2012 at 7:30am
There’s so much to talk about sometimes, I hardly know where to begin. This is definitely one of those weeks, considering the powerful rally we’ve seen in stocks … at a time when the underlying fundamentals are deteriorating! So let’s get right to it …
First up is housing. I hate to keep harping on the obvious here. But that powerful recovery you’re hearing about on CNBC is STILL proving MIA.
I told you last week that latest readings on home builder optimism and home construction both failed to meet expectations. Since then, we’ve gotten several more updates on the state of housing.
The Census Bureau weighed in on new home sales. The National Association of Realtors told us about pending home sales. And SP/Case-Shiller shared its latest pricing data. All THREE reports had one thing in common: They all missed expectations or proved disappointing!
New home sales? They fell 1.6 percent to a worse-than-expected 313,000 units in February. Economists were looking for a rise of 1.3 percent.
Pending home sales? They fell 0.5 percent in February, compared with forecasts for a gain of 1 percent.
Home prices? They fell for a fifth straight month in January. That left the Case-Shiller index at the lowest level in almost a decade!
Are things better than they were several months ago? Yes.
But some of that is just a function of the calendar — people buy more homes in the spring than the fall. Some of it is also because of the weather. Americans don’t really shop for homes when there’s two feet of snow outside. But they will when it’s 70 degrees in February in New York!
I continue to believe traditional spring demand was pulled forward this year. So while home builders like Lennar (LEN) have talked a good game about demand in their most recent quarters, there’s going to be payback later. Or in plain English: It’s not too late to sell those building stocks!
